Formula Details

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Additive Metrics

LOCATION SIZE
Small 5
Medium 3
Large 2
Extra Large 1
GROUP SIZE
2 1
3-10 2
11-49 3
50+ 4
HOURS AT EVENT
< 1 1
1-2 2
3-6 3
7+ 4
MISCELLANEOUS
Public Transportation 3
Shared/Public Restrooms 2
Alcohol 2

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Multiplying Metrics

LOCATION TYPE
Indoors 2
Outdoors 1
MASK WEARING
None 4
Some 3
Most 2
All 1
CovidActNow.org RISK LEVELS
Low 0.9
Medium 1.2
High 1.5
Critical 2

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Formula

( [additive metric] + [additive metric] ... )
x
( [multiplying metric] x [multiplying metric] ...)
= total score

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Cutoff Score

35

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"Go" Example

LOCATION SIZE
Medium 3
GROUP SIZE
3-10 2
HOURS AT EVENT
1-2 2
MISCELLANEOUS
Shared/Public Restrooms 2
SUM OF ADDITIVE METRICS 9
LOCATION TYPE
Outdoors 1
MASK WEARING
All 1
CovidActNow.org RISK LEVEL
Medium 1.2
PRODUCT OF MULTIPLYING METRICS 1.2
PRODUCT OF ADDITIVE & MULTIPLICATIVE METRICS 10.8
EVALUATE AGAINST CUTOFF 10.8 < 35

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"Don't Go" Example

LOCATION SIZE
Small 5
GROUP SIZE
3-10 2
HOURS AT EVENT
1-2 2
MISCELLANEOUS
Alcohol 2
SUM OF ADDITIVE METRICS 11
LOCATION TYPE
Outdoors 1
MASK WEARING
Some 3
CovidActNow.org RISK LEVEL
Medium 1.2
PRODUCT OF MULTIPLYING METRICS 3.6
PRODUCT OF ADDITIVE & MULTIPLICATIVE METRICS 39.6
EVALUATE AGAINST CUTOFF 39.6 > 35

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Generate More Scenarios

Generate 1000 random scenarios, dedupe them, sort them by score, and download the resulting CSV by clicking below:

Generate Scenarios


Changelog

New Risk Level Mulipliers
7/5/2020 9:45 am ET

In light of feedback about low risk, outdoor, masked events in high-risk areas, I raised the cutoff from 28 to 35 and changed the multiplying values for CovidActNow.org Risk Levels:


CovidActNow.org Risk Level Old Value New Value
Low 1 0.9
Medium 2 1.2
High 3 1.5
Critical 4 2

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